 While areas of the country seem to be bracing for continued slowing in the market, often seen each winter due to the seasonality of home buying, this year appears to have garnered even more attention. Some areas of the country are seeing market times increase and prices decrease at rates not experienced in several years. So what about Portland? I will try to make this short and sweet. Pending sales are decreasing and inventories are increasing as we head into the Fall months. While interest rates remain low, the strict supply and demand characteristics of the market right now indicate that we will likely see continued slowing this winter, but a steady rate of appreciation year over year as compared to similar trends in recent years. What I am seeing is an obvious “slowing” occurring with homes at higher price points, namely 500k and above, while homes priced correctly in the sub 350k range continue to sell in expeditious timeframes, sometimes with multiple-offer scenarios. Overall, I remain bullish on the Portland market.
I attribute this to five factors: 1) Portland’s affordability compared to the other major cities on the west coast; 2) Portland’s urban planning and development strategies; 3) Portland’s 8.1% employment growth since 2003 and 1% unemployment drop from June of 2005 1, 2; 4) interest rates remaining low; 5) the phenomenal PR Portland continues to receive from numerous organizations and publications nationwide. We have a good thing and people from other areas of the country continue to catch on at a steady pace. If I had to guess, 2006 will end with early double digit appreciation for the calendar year and 2007 will see appreciation from 7-12%. If priced correctly, that means a 300k home would appreciate by $21,000-$36,000 at the market average from January 07’ to January 08’.
The condo market is a much harder assessment for me due to the ever-changing inventories of new and resale condominiums. Considering: 1) the possibility of additional releases on the South Waterfront and the waterfront north of the Pearl; 2) re-sales in buildings such as the Meriwether being plentiful since completion; 3) tax abatements coming to a close in the older Pearl buildings in the next couple years; 4) the fact Block 9 just released another North Pearl building a year before completion of the Metropolitan, I hesitate to guess whether these increases in supply will be met with equivalent or excess demand. I suppose the silver lining is that condo conversions will inevitably slow, I hope.
1-Portland Business Journal / October 6, 2006 page 11
2-PBJournal Statistics compiled from mid-year data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
I have summarized the most recent RMLS statistics from completed sales in August below.
Market News from RMLS
Market News reports are typically published 2-4 weeks behind the current month. As a result please know my newsletter publishes the most recent RMLS statistics available for the preceding month to the current newsletter.
August statistics Released October 2, 2006.
AUGUST 2006
AVERAGE MARKET TIME: 39 DAYS
MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $225,000 in 2005 - $263,000 in 2006
AVERAGE SALES PRICE: $268,400 in 2005 - $312,400 in 2006
NEW LISTINGS: 5,529 (*700 more listings than in 2005 at that time)
Average Sales Price: AUGUST 2006 / Appreciation Year to Date
SW/NW PORTLAND: $433,100 / 12.0%!
NORTH PORTLAND: $243,400 / 21.4%!
NORTHEAST PORTLAND: $308,700 / 17.3%!
SOUTHEAST PORTLAND: $264,500 / 16.6%!
Beaverton/Aloha: $272,400 / 16.3%!
Lake Oswego/West Linn: $575,700 / 18.9%!
Tigard/Wilsonville: $361,300 / 20.8%!
*Statistics are from RMLS
 Leaves and Gutters
This time of the year we start to see the leaves fall off the trees, many times into our gutters and downspouts. During the “rainy” months it is extremely important to keep your gutters and downspouts clear of debris and leaves so that the rainwater collected and received by them and your roof is diverted away from the foundation of your house. If I created a hierarchy of home maintenance “musts” this would be on top. Nobody likes a wet basement or a permeable foundation. In short, get the water away from the perimeter of your house and keep your gutters and downspouts clean, with good grade and proper disbursement at ground level. -Jim
CLEAN and Service your Furnace
As we start to see temps gradually drop into the 50’s and even the 40’s this fall, we will all inevitably reach for the thermostat. When you do this, I recommend checking your furnace to see when the last service and cleaning was conducted. If no sticker is apparent and you can’t recall having your furnace serviced in the last year I recommend you have it serviced to ensure proper functionality through this winter.
I can say without hesitation that the most overlooked home maintenance item I see is the annual servicing of the furnace. Each year I attend between 30 and 50 home inspections and I would guess that approximately 75-80% of furnaces don’t appear clean and don’t have a service sticker with a date of service noted within the prior 12 months.
Servicing your furnace typically runs between $100.00 and $200.00 and includes inspection of your furnace to ensure proper functionality and the cleaning or replacement of the filters. Your furnace should be serviced regularly just like your car. Cleaning your filters also provides for a cleaner in-house environment. For anyone who has pets or children I would consider having your ducts cleaned every couple of years. Carrie and I recently had this done because it hadn’t been done in the home we purchased in probably dozens of years. The amount of “junk” that came out of the ducts was incredible. Again, in short, you may want to consider having your ducts cleaned when you have your furnace serviced. Some outfits do both, others provide service for one or the other. -Jim
10/01/06 - 10/31/06
9:00am to 6:00pm
Sauvie's Island
16511 NW Gillihan Rd.
Sauvie’s Island
503.621.3874 |
The Pumpkin Patch
One of Portland’s most cherished Patches located on Sauvie’s Island. |
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Now – 10/25/06
10am – 2pm
Park Blocks SW Park and Salmon
503.241.0032 |
Wednesday Farmer’s Market
Locally grown food |
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Now – 12/16/06
8:30am – 2pm
Park Blocks SW Park and Salmon
503.241.0032 |
Saturday Farmer’s Market
Spring produce, locally raised meats, wild fish, artisan foods, vegetable starts and bedding plants galore underscore the pleasures of locally grown food and gardening. |
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Now – 11/05/06
Gerding Theater at the Armory
120 N.W. 11th
Portland, OR
www.pcs.org
503.445.3700 |
West Side Story
Now playing at the renovated Armory Building. Based loosely on Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, this has been a classic since it premiered on Broadway in 1957. |
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Now - 11/30/06
Daily at 10am
Various locations throughout Portland
503.774.4522
Adults $15; Seniors/Youth $12; Children under 12 free of charge |
Portland Walking Tours
This fun and award-winning walk clarifies why Portland is regularly recognized as one of the best places to live. You'll hear about early and modern Portland as your guide shows you a city rich with artwork, parks, bridges, free public transportation, fountains, countless coffee shops, breweries and friendly people. Join this easy walk and get the inside scoop and fun facts about the city of Portland. |
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Now – 1/1/2007
OSMI 1945 SE Water Avenue
Portland, OR 97214
www.omsi.edu
503.797.4000 |
Star Wars: Where Science Meets Imagination - OMSI
The first exhibition of its kind, Star Wars: Where Science Meets Imagination, combines costumes and props from all six Star Wars films with real-world technologies, video interviews with filmmakers, scientists and engineers, and two large engineering design labs, where visitors can build and test speeders and robots. Visitors will explore prototypes, learn about the engineers and designers who are creating new technologies, and discover intriguing similarities between how scientists and filmmakers think. |
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10/14/06 - 10/22/06
10:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.
Saturday and Sunday, October 14 and 15, west of Willamette
Saturday and Sunday, October 21 and 22, east of Willamette
Various locations around Portland
503.285.3131
$15 guide for two adults, all days, children free |
Portland Open Art Studios
Portland Open Studios 2006 is your chance to see how art is made. Almost 100 artists at work in their own workplaces making artworks in all media will share with you the secrets of their art--the materials, the tools, the techniques and the ideas that contribute to the creation of artworks. |
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10/24/06
8:00pm
1.877.789.7673
$25, $35, $45
Rose Garden Arena
One Center Court
Portland, OR 97227 |
Lecture: Al Gore
Former Vice President Al Gore has once again emerged front and center on the national and international stage with the response to both his bestselling book and major motion picture based on it, entitled An Inconvenient Truth. |
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If you would like an upcoming event to be included, please email
Gretchen at jim@pdxhomes.com Thank you.
1) Daylight Savings ("Fall Back")
2) Leaf Pickup ("Portland Neighborhoods and Other Cities")
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Leaf Removal Dates by Portland Neighborhood (http://www.portlandonline.com/shared/cfm/image.cfm?id=132515 )
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Department of Transportation Leaf Removal Information:
(http://www.portlandonline.com/transportation/index.cfm?c=35716&a=gagja)
Not all cities in the Portland Metro. have leaf sweeps and formal pick up dates for the leaves which fall into the street from street-side trees. Check with the City of Lake Oswego, Tigard, Beaverton, West Linn, Hillsboro, etc. to find out how their departments of transportation and waste management collect yard debris. Each year this is apt to vary based on city budgets, new amendments, etc.
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Fact: The Institute for Local Self Reliance shows that Portland receives approximately 4000 tons of leaf debris each year.
3) Elections (Vote!) General Election November 7th, 2006
4) Restaurant Tip: ROUX!
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Louisiana Inspired Cuisine, Full Bar & Wine List, Dinner Seven Nights!
PHONE:
(971) 234-9575
ADDRESS:
1700 N. Killingsworth Street
Portland, OR
We loved this place! Try the Croque Monsieur Salad!
Some of the best food I have had in Portland in the past 5 years.
(a new section of my pdxhomes newsletter)
PDXPOST.com & NEW PROPERTY SEARCH TOOLS
PDXPOST.com
This Fall I am working on developing a tool that I have envisioned as the first of several publications I hope to launch for Portland in the next several years.
That publication is PDXPOST.com.
PDXPOST.com will be Portland’s first, free community posting website dedicated solely to Portland. It will be very much like Craigslist.org, however it will have additional tools, functionality and an enhanced user interface. I originally envisioned PDXHOMES.com having a free postings attribute which would allow my clients to post their moving sales, estate sales, free takeaway items, etc., however, after thinking about it for some time now I believe a stand alone site, which goes beyond the real estate industry makes more sense.
The site will be free to everyone and will be dedicated only to postings in the Portland metropolitan area. Please look for PDXPOST.com to launch this winter.
PDXHOMES.com NEW Property Search
NEW! Neighborhood Boundary Searches, Enhanced Photo Galleries and Enhanced Map Search Functionality.
This September the company I work with to deliver my property search implemented a functionality that I have been requesting of them since 2003. That functionality is the ability to search for homes based on neighborhood boundaries. In addition to this new search tool my website also has enhanced image previews and property summaries. I hope you like the additions. -Jim
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